Not Unipolarity, Not Multipolarity, But a Secret Third Thing
Unipolarity was short-lived. Multipolarity never will be. Welcome to global depolarization.
Fareed Zakaria's 2008 column, "The Rise of the Rest," was an insightful guide for understanding the who and how of a world order that sought to supplant American post-Cold War unipolarity after we compromised our credibility with ill-advised and expensive wars in the Middle East. This analytical framework was further developed by multipolarists, who asserted that the rival systems of China and Russia would ascend and establish their respective spheres of influence, attracting countries that favored autocracy.
However, multipolarism is faltering. Neither China nor Russia has demonstrated the ability to become appealing poles, to use the term’s own parlance. And as 2023 draws to a close, a series of global events indicates that neither can rival the ease with which the United States establishes and galvanizes a sphere of influence, albeit one more limited in scope than previously dreamed.
On Ngorno Karabagh
Regardless of your stance on the ethics of Azerbaijan's impending annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh, the lack of intervention by any major power is a significant reflection of the state of global power politics.
If Russia were a credible power pole, as the multipolarists had forecasted, they would have stepped in to safeguard the territorial integrity of their treaty ally. Yet, the security assurances of the CSTO proved hollow.
While some might argue that Russia's inaction stems from its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, such an argument misses the broader point. Russia's inability to manage multiple fronts undermines its claim as a formidable competitor to the United States.
Contrast this with the US response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We not only financially supported the Ukrainians as they initially resisted and are now reclaiming territory but also extended our treaty obligations to new NATO members, notably Finland, which shares a border with Russia. We remain a dominant force, while they do not.
India and the West’s Response to Belt and Road
India's tenure as the G-20 host was notably favorable for American interests. China opted for self-isolation when Xi abstained from attending the summit in New Delhi. Pre-summit controversies included China's bizarre objection to a joint communique drafted in the ancient Indian language of Sanskrit.
The G-20's highlight was the unveiling of a US-mediated India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Though no discussions explicitly labeled it as a competitor to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the message was unmistakable. China's state-affiliated South China Morning Post's headline – "Why India’s new US-backed trade corridor to Europe is no ‘anti-China project’ for the Middle East" seemed more like a geopolitical rerun of the famous [My "Not involved in human trafficking" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt] meme than a cogent rebuttal.
The corridor's inclusion of Israel's Haifa Port hinted at a prospective successful culmination of Washington's efforts to broker a landmark peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, especially as the latter is pivotal to the corridor. Earlier this year, India's Adani Group became the primary stakeholder in the port.
China’s Ongoing Economic Meltdown
China's economy is grappling with several pressing issues: decelerating growth, a real estate downturn, an aging populace, and youth unemployment. These challenges are interconnected and could lead to a significant economic recession, undermining China's ambition to be a global counterpart to the US.
Slowing Growth: In recent years, China's economic momentum has been waning, a trend expected to persist. In 2022, China's GDP expanded by 3%, marking its most sluggish pace in decades. Factors contributing to this slowdown include the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing trade dispute with the US, and Beijing's stringent measures against the private sector.
Real Estate Crisis: China's property market is in turmoil. Burdened with excessive debt and affected by governmental measures to temper the market, numerous developers are finding it challenging to service their loans, leading to a sharp decline in property sales. The property sector's significance in the country's GDP and investment means its crisis has profound implications for the broader economy.
Aging Population: China is witnessing rapid demographic aging. With a fertility rate below the replacement level and an ascending median age, the working population is shrinking, while the retiree segment grows, making it challenging for China to sustain its economic vigor.
Youth Unemployment: One of China's most urgent economic concerns is the escalating youth unemployment rate, which reached a staggering 21.3% in June 2023. In August 2023, Beijing declared that it would cease publishing youth unemployment figures, citing a need for data "refinement." However, it's evident that this move aims to conceal the gravity of the youth unemployment situation, especially given the government's tendency to manipulate statistics.
To put it bluntly, the state of China's economy is precarious and is anticipated to deteriorate further with the implementation of US trade and investment restrictions. A declining economy might spur China to resort to impulsive geopolitical maneuvers to foster nationalistic unity. However, these very challenges cripple China's capacity to position itself as a global pole or a counterpart to America on the international stage.
The world is depolarizing
This leaves us with a world where the central power is understanding its limits for unilateral action, despite remaining the sole unchallenged superpower. The inability to act unilaterally as we once could means that the United States will be pickier about how and where we exercise hard power.
But we have a new wealth of soft power from a burgeoning friendship with India- widely regarded as the voice of the Global South-, a renewed and invigorated NATO in the face of Russian aggression, and a new role as peacemaker in the Middle East that has long been promised but now sits ont he precipice of real results.
The much-ballyhooed recent expansion of BRICS was anything but the reinvigoration that Beijing wishes to pretend it was. The new class of entrants has more concrete ties to the American economic system that the group purports to undermine. While the addition of rivals like Iran and Saudi Arabia was heralded internally as proof of the group’s ability to create consensus, the reality is that the additions of rivals will only make policy consensus harder to reach within BRICS and will only add to the sclerotic nature of an acronym in which the C is trying to forcefully redraw its borders with the I.
The world moved away from unipolarity when we did stupid costly Middle Eastern occupations. Multipolarity was promised but the security and economic fundamentals were never in the cards. What we are left with is a world where the United States has a slimmer roster of allies, but a stronger command of our sphere. It’s not an ideal world but it’s a world one can be reasonably confident in our ability to work with.