I'm Still Confident That Biden Will Win
Crosstabs matter.
Everyone should calm down, the 2024 campaign hasn’t started yet in earnest. That said, I am still fairly confident that Biden will win re-election.
-
First, I don’t think that the polls currently matter. Independents are the only voters that matter in the modern, highly divided American society, and the data shows that they aren’t really paying attention yet.
I don’t think the polls matter until after the Republican and Democratic conventions in July and August respectively, which is when the voters who will decide the election tune in.
-
Fox’s most recent poll emphasizes the hyper-polarized nature of this election: “Nearly all partisans remain loyal, as 95% of Democrats are with Biden and 95% of Republicans back Trump.”
As long as that number remains consistent until the election (and there isn’t any reason to think it won’t), the only constituency that matters is Independents.
Biden surrogates were very quick to point out that all five recent national polls show Biden ahead, and when you take into account the latest from The Economist/YouGov, the picture remains relatively constant.
Independents matter, and we have two elections worth of data on Trump to gauge his standing with them.
In 2016, Trump only slightly edged out Clinton among Independents according to Cornell’s Roper Center, winning 46-42. Remember: 2016 was decided by a margin of 77,744 voters across Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. This 46-42 margin can be considered Trump’s floor - the minimum margin among Independents necessary for him to win.
In 2020, Biden destroyed Trump among Independents, winning the group 54-41 (again per Roper Center), and flipped back those aforementioned three states (and more). However, while Biden won Michigan and Pennsylvania by sizeable margins, his margin in Wisconsin was only 20,682 votes, which indicates that the 2024 election will be close in spite of Biden’s noted advantage with Independent voters.
-
Looking at the results for Independents in recent polls though, the picture is quite positive for Biden.
The most recent Economist/YouGov poll shows Biden losing Independents 38-30, but with a high non-response rate of 15%.
Unfortunately, the Fox poll does not provide crosstabs, but they disclose that “Independents favor Biden by 9 points, a shift from May when they preferred Trump by 2 points” - crucially, with high response rates implied in the topline.
The most recent Morning Consult poll shows Trump with a 2 point edge among independents, but once against with a non-response rate in the double digits and a generic “someone else” option much higher than what 3rd party candidates are polling at otherwise.
The NY Post/YouGov poll also gives gives Trump a slight lead with a high non-response rate
A Morning Consult poll fielded a couple days earlier than the one above had very similar results - Biden overall lead, Trump slight lead with Independents but with high non-response rates.
So what does this tell us? The trends clearly point to many swing voters being undecided. That said, the recent Fox poll showing the Biden lead among Independents with high response rates is very positive for his camp, especially combined with the fact that Trump is his own worst enemy on the campaign trail and won’t be able to help himself but alienate more moderates as his various criminal cases and erratic campaign rallies drag on until the election.
Again, everyone needs to relax and let the race develop.