How War with Mexico Would go South

Against the maniacal Republican push for war with Mexico

Mexico is one of my favorite countries besides my own. I grew up 10 minutes from the San Ysidro crossing. Most, or at least a strong plurality of my friends growing up were either Mexican-American immigrants or their children. I even played on a travel soccer team that spoke only Spanish in a team setting, an experience that polished my second language.

All of that is to say, I have an immense personal bias against the idea of going to war with Mexico, just like most, if not the vast majority of people who live in or come from the American Southwest.

The near-consensus among Republican presidential candidates that we ought to invade Mexico is an idea so moronic that it could only be suggested by a party whose pride in its own ignorance is matched only by its ignorance of the nature of American pride.

Putting aside the inevitable catastrophes that war with our southern neighbor would bring, it is important to interrogate two questions: what is behind this push to war, and how would this war affect the most pressing security interest of our time - the ongoing economic decoupling from China?

Just last month, Mexico surpassed China as the top trading partner. There are very few impediments in Mexico’s way to running up a wide lead in that category for decades to come - in fact, they will benefit from considerable tailwinds in America’s overt policies of friend-shoring and nearshoring, as well as the diversity in skill and value-add proficiency of their labor force.

As to the first question, the concern underlying the push to war is legitimate. Particularly brutal cartels, like the Jalisco New Generation, are expanding, and their influence in our border region is a threat - not only from their facilitation of human trafficking but also from their choice to act as an arm of the CCP’s fentanyl operation, which amounts to a modern, synthetic opium war.

But the answer to this issue isn’t unilateral military action. Unilateral military action, as we learned vis-a-vis Pakistan during the Afghanistan War, will only alienate the population of an allied country.

I would also recommend this paper from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction with lessons learned from the whole affair.

Though, to be fair, classifying both Mexico and Pakistan as allies in this context does a great disservice in describing the value of Mexico’s friendship. One of the few provocative actions of the Trump administration that reaped significant dividends in our regional security and defensive posture was suspending military aid to Pakistan. This move cut dead weight in our alliance network and, more crucially, opened up a path of engagement with India that more closely suits our interests and modern security concerns (just don’t call it an alliance).

The right answer is twofold: to modernize our border and engage with the Mexican government such that they have the tools they need to win the fight against the cartels.

Border modernization is a process that is already underway, with tech being built here in America. As of this July, the United States has erected 370 of Anduril’s autonomous surveillance towers along the southern border, towers which can detect human movement with a range of 1.7 miles. The strategy behind these virtual guard towers is simple: get a complete picture of how smugglers are entering the country, and free up Border Patrol officers to apprehend them. EFF has a handy interactive map of the towers here if you care to see how the new era of border security is shaping up.

As to the question of engaging with the Mexican government - that is a mission that is made difficult by the bizarre personal arrogance of Mexico’s current President Obrador (aka AMLO). Luckily, he is on his way out and is almost certainly going to be replaced by the former Mayor of Mexico City, Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum.

And while Sheinbaum is from the same nominally leftist party as AMLO, her past statements regarding security and the United States read like a breath of fresh air of pragmatism. In 2022, she oversaw a modernization of CDMX’s police force training that drew from technologies used in the United States and our close ally Israel. She even took to Twitter to brag about this development.

Democrats would be wise to counter the chest-beating militarism and empty promises of a physical wall paid for by Mexico with proposals for a smarter, more secure border. Also, it is okay to ignore Palmer Luckey liking Trump - not that anyone in power necessarily needs to be told that since the Biden administration has shown gravitas and maturity by continuing the federal relationship with Anduril and ignoring the hysterics of a particularly short-sighted activist class.

The United States has a lot to lose when we manufacture bad relations with our southern neighbors and so much to gain if we work with them to improve the security of both our countries and build the future of North American industry together. The question fundamentally is - Why would we make a new enemy out of misplaced aggression when we can instead gain an even better friend with shared enemies?

To close, I would also recommend this piece from @GravitysRa1nbow, which is an informed, albeit a bit speculative, take on the attitudes behind the truly bizarre Republican push for war with Mexico.